Saturday, February 5, 2011

vannevar bush and predictions for the future

"Vannevar Bush was a formidable man."
Indeed. The man had a long list of accomplishments and accolades: He was a leader in his field, an advisor to the U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development. Oh, and I should probably add, one of the dudes on the Manhattan Project that helped make the Atomic Bomb. Yeah... that.

I suppose it's one thing to be a genius and another to be an empathic human being. Nonetheless, the past is passed. Our human history foreshadows how our knowledge will eventually lead us away into our own oblivion. Like the aliens in Slaughterhouse-5 who spoke of how it was actually us--WE pressed the button to end the world. I'm paraphrasing of course. And I digress a bit.

There are a few points I took with me from reading Bush's "As We May Think," which is an article published in the Atlantic in July 1945. In it, Bush writes about his predictions regarding technological advances. His future has many fantastical inventions to assist in human progress and in the acquiring of knowledge.

Gem 1: Bush's predictions about photography were pretty interesting. Photography is still an integral technology we use today. Bush was interested in the further development of photography and wrote extensively in his predictions about different features like being worn on the users head and being as small as a walnut. He knew that progress in photography was not going to stop-- and he was right. In fact, he wondered about dry photography. Little did he know that 65 years later, we'd have digital photography, with the added benefits of instant gratification (seeing the image right after taking it) and being able to take hundreds of photos at one time without the need for film.

Gem 2: Gem 2 is not so much a gem as it is something to ponder further: Does our imagination shape reality? I think putting ideas out there and believing in their potential does wonders for the real world. Now, if we can make our thought-lives great... that's another story for another time.

Gem 3: Technology is a tool. The development of it may very well become easier and easier to speed up, but we as a people should be wary (not fearful) about the implications on the future. I say not fearful because I may come across as some paleolithic person who doesn't know her way around a cell phone. I am not Thoreau and I do not hate technology. In fact, I probably would become depressed without my trusty iPhone! (That's just between you and me, dear internet...) My opinion is: technology for technology's sake is stupid. It should be for something meaningful. The disparity between society's progress and technology's progress is so vast, it's ridiculous. Bush addressed this at the beginning of his article, "...man's use of science and of new instruments which his research brought into existence... have increased his control of his material environment. They have improved his food, his clothing, his shelter; they have increased his security and released his partly from the bondage of bare existence. They have given his increased knowledge of his own biological processes so that he has had a progressive freedom from disease and an increased span of life. They are illuminating the interactions of his physiological functions, giving the promise of an improved mental health." It sounds great, in theory. Yet for billions of people around the world, how true is this?

Now for my predictions for 2076 (65 years from now). Brace yourself, they're pretty dismal:

#1. We will have genetically modified plant-based food. Meat eaters will be shunned. In fact, cow, pig, turkey and chicken populations will drastically decrease. TSP (texturized soy protein) will be used in lieu of chicken.  And no, we cannot grow our own food, silly. We will be completely reliant on corporations who own patents and original seeds.

#2. Entire populations will begin living underground. First we had urban sprawl, then we built skyscrapers. This is just the next logical thing. Hopefully the overpopulation thing will be taken care of... oh, wait. That leads to my third point.

#3. A third or fourth world war. The middle class becoming wiped out. And the continued genocide of all indigenous people. If you aren't white or part white, sorry for you. Oh! Actually, I take this back. White, part white or filthy rich. (I'm accounting for the wealthy families who are currently in power in most countries.)

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